Experiment & Assumption Sprint
Assign a plan or idea and a PM agent surfaces the riskiest assumptions across eight risk categories, prioritizes them on an Impact x Risk matrix, and designs the cheapest decisive test for each — gated by your approval before anything runs.
Saves you ~3.5 h / run
How it works
- Trigger
- When you start the “Surface, prioritize, design, self-critique, approve” workflow.
- Job
- Surface the riskiest assumptions, prioritize on the Impact x Risk matrix.
- Outcome
- A ranked assumption log with decisive test plans.
What it installs
Agents 2
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PM Agent
A product manager who turns a plan's hidden risks into a prioritized, tested-cheaply experiment plan.
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Experiment & Assumption Sprint Quality Reviewer
Checks primary evidence, domain controls, deliverable completeness, and communication quality, stopping the run when the work is wrong, unsupported, incomplete, or uncertain.
Teams 1
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Experiment & Assumption Sprint quality team
The delivery agents produce the work while an independent quality reviewer checks each workflow handoff against explicit evidence, domain, and communication requirements before the run can continue.
Workflows 1
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Surface, prioritize, design, self-critique, approve
Surface the riskiest assumptions, prioritize on the Impact x Risk matrix, design the cheapest decisive test for each, self-critique the plan, and hand off for approval.
Documents 1
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Experiment log
The structured log where prioritized assumptions, their cheapest decisive tests, pass/fail signals, and outcomes are recorded.
Skills 4
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identify-assumptions
Surface the riskiest hidden assumptions behind a new product or plan across 8 risk categories — Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility, plus Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team — thinking from PM, Designer, and Engineer perspectives and rating confidence and a test for each. Adapted from phuryn/pm-skills/identify-assumptions-new.
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prioritize-assumptions
Triage a list of assumptions on an Impact x Risk matrix (Risk = (1 - Confidence) x Effort) and route each by quadrant — Proceed, Experiment, Defer, or Reject — then design a minimal, behavior-measuring experiment with a clear success threshold for the ones that need testing. Adapted from phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions.
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brainstorm-experiments
Design lean startup pretotype experiments for a new idea: frame an XYZ hypothesis ('at least X% of Y will do Z'), pick 2-3 low-effort validation methods (landing page, explainer video, pre-order/waitlist, concierge MVP), and apply Savoia's skin-in-the-game and your-own-data principles to measure real commitment, not opinions. Adapted from phuryn/pm-skills/brainstorm-experiments-new.
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pol-probe-advisor
Select the right Proof-of-Life probe — feasibility check, task-focused test, narrative prototype, synthetic-data simulation, or vibe-coded probe — by working backwards from the hypothesis to match the cheapest method to the harshest truth, with pass/fail/learn criteria and a disposal plan, rather than defaulting to the tool you're comfortable with. Adapted from deanpeters/product-manager-skills/pol-probe-advisor.
Folders 1
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Experiment Sprint
Setup guide
How to Run an Experiment Assumption Sprint
A practical guide to surfacing hidden product assumptions, ranking them by risk, and designing cheap decisive tests.
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